The Election Has Swung: For The First Time Since November Democrats Lead On Average Of All Congressional Ballots

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According to 538’s average of all generic congressional ballot questions, Democrats have taken the lead over Republicans for the first time since November.

A Big Post Roe Change In The Midterm Polling Average For Democrats

The 538 graph:

For the first time since Nov 15 of last year, Dems are leading in the 538 generic ballot poll average, and trending upward.

— Tom Bonier (@tbonier) August 8, 2022

Democrats Have Been Gaining Midterm Momentum

Republicans have seen their average of all polls lead drop from 2.6 points on June 15 to trailing Democrats by one-tenth of a point today.

What happened after June 16?

The Supreme Court overturned Roe.

The 538 average matches up with internal Democratic polling showing that the Supreme Court’s ruling changed the trajectory of the midterm election. After Roe.

The second factor after June 16 was gas prices started to fall. According to AAA, the record high for a gallon of gas happened on June 14. Since polling always lags behind real-world events, the change in gas prices didn’t immediately reflect in the numbers, but after almost two months of daily declines, gas prices are no longer a “driver” of voter anger toward Democrats.

Inflation is expected to fall soon, and if prices drop before the midterm election, Republicans will be left with nothing to run on.

Democratic momentum is growing, and what was presumed to be a red wave has turned into a dog fight that Democrats have a chance to win if they work hard over the next few months.

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